I predict the US Army will be in deep trouble.

First, I must call out my non-objective biases before you read this:

• I am an active Marine Reservist.


• I think the Marines are the best branch of service in the Military, Navy being next, followed by Air Force, then Army in last place.


• I joined the military in June 2001, and since Sept. 11th, 2001 our country has been at war for 4 years.


• A lot of this is drawn from personal experiences and observations


• I don't plan on re-enlisting in 21 months (see, I'm counting already!)

I predict that the U.S. Military, specifically the U.S. Army, is going to degenerate into the worst state of general welfare it's seen in decades.
Recruiters are working long and hard trying to get people to "become an army of one" and reaching out to the young impressionable teenagers. Unfortunately, recruitment goals are at an all time low this year. The Army and Marines are the worst hit by the slow-down in new recruits willing to join, while the Air Force and Navy are slightly better off in meeting recruitment goals. Obviously the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have a great impact on someone's decision to enlist. A recent and alarming trend that the Army and Marines are seeing is a large number of Non-Commissioned Officers (NCO's) leaving the ranks in large numbers. These are people who have a few years to go on their first enlistment, or are into their second enlistment. When the time comes to re-enlist or get out, many are now choosing to get out instead of re-enlisting.

I myself have definately decided that I am not going to re-enlist. I haven't put in enough time to consider the military as a lifetime career goal with the intention of retiring in 20 years, and those who decided that they were going to make the 20 year retirement goal are changing their minds. Here's what sucks about the military: You sign a contract of commitment for a period of time, ranging from two, four or six years depending on the conditions of service. That timed commitment means that you cannot change your contract to get out of the service unless you want a discharge less then "Honorable" (Note: Dishonorable discharges are like receiving a felony). This gives military higher ups permission to create all kinds of bullshit, and you as a contracted individual can't do anything about it. I must say right now, all branches of service have very admirable and respectable leaders, but they also have their share of crappy ones who are out on a power-trip or grossly incompetent which ruins it all for everyone. Perhaps its a case of selective memory, but I think there are more incidences of crappy leaders making bad choices then good leaders making common sense decisions. Here is an example I will never forget:

I was on a small army training base just a few miles north of Yakima, walking to our motor-pool (military parking lot) when I noticed that there were two armed army men standing next to each dumpster in sight. They definately don't have bullets, but still carried guns. Yakima is a hot, miserable desert in the day, and a cold, windy and equally miserable desert in the night time. I walk up to two army dumpster guards and ask them "what gives?". Apparently, they have to guard garbage dumpsters to make sure that people don't accidentally throw away unused MRE heaters. Landfills consider unused MRE heaters as hazardous materials because there is a small potential that they'd start a fire, so they fine the military $10,000 for each unused MRE heater that they find. The army doesn't trust their own men enough to burn up their unused MRE heaters, so they'd rather post guards at all the dumpsters to ensure nobody throws one away accidentally.
Army Guard: "Man, this isn't what I joined the army for. Don't join the army!"
Me: "You don't have to convince me..."

There is also a common belief in the military: There's never nothing to do. Translation: If we don't have work for you, we'll make something up to keep you busy. I'm sure anyone in the military can relate and recall an experience when they thought they were doing assigned busy work.

To get to the point, people in the military have always had to put up with "bullshit" and its probably going to be a trend that won't stop any time soon. The effect is one point of demoralization/dissatisfaction added to whatever personal total a person has. Most people can suck it up.

My next point is the continuing wars in foreign countries, specifically Iraq, are making people second-think their reasons for being in the military. Most people won't paint a rosy picture or what a good deployment they had in Iraq (mine was stellar). I gotta ask this though: What the fuck does America care about Iraq for? Why are we dying and getting permanently mutilated by combat injuries when there is no immediate or forseeable benefits to the American taxpayers and nation as a whole? We are dumping billions of dollars into Iraq, but what do we get out of it? Oil? That's one hell of an expensive way to get oil when there's plenty elsewhere in the world. WMD? There are none! we know! Crimes against humanity? In that case, we should have attacked North Korea instead! lets start our phased exit plan! Lets zoom forward five years into the future:
"After 3,754 service men and women have died and $670 billion dollars spent, America has finally accomplished a difficult and very costly goal of building a fragile democracy in a volatile middle-eastern country at no direct benefit to America. The purpose of building up someone elses national infrastructure still puzzles American tax-payers and the rest of the world."

You can't deny it. The drawn out guerilla-warfare in Iraq is affecting recruitment results in America and lowering retention rates universally across all branches of service. The siren calls of nationalistic patriotism have faded out and the American public and service memebers are disillusioned and see how little the higher authorities really care about them. Family members expecting military benefits are not getting what they need. They can't pay rent on time. They can't get adequate medical care. They are struggling to survive as single parents when a spouse is on deployment for a MINIMUM for seven months, but often a year to eighteen months at a time. Is the cost of maintaining a multi-billion dollar war abroad making military families suffer at home? The family friendly policy of the military is this: We care about you and your family just enough so that we can use you to do what we need to get done. It's a common story to hear about administrative nightmares of service members and their families trying to get their benefits squared away, but getting tangled up in beauracracy and red tape. Instead, people just give up. Net Effect: Lower retention rates and demoralization with service members AND spouses.

It's the combination of the little things that start stacking up on the backs of service members which eventually break the backs of us and our spouses. It's the bullshit we put up with every day, its the threat of stoploss, admin nightmares, minimalist family policies, nebulous goals, and last but not least, the stress of worrying about dying in war every day.

Consider this my "State of the Military" analysis. So now that you've gotten a first-hand view of what it's really like to be in the military, especially for the last five years under the Bush Administration, I'd like to present my predictions for the future US Military.

Military Forecast:
-More people will start leaving the military, especially NCO's who are the military's leadership backbone.
-The true effects of fewer experienced NCO's will create a knowledge vacume and shift NCO responsibilities and leadership higher up the chain of command.
-Recruitment goals are going to continue to free fall.
-Recruiters and the military, specifically Army and Marines, will get more desperate to fill growing manpower shortages. The result will be lower required standards for the recruit and higher incentives. $50,000 for college? you ain't seen nuthin' yet... No highschool diploma? No problem! Can't run? Can't shoot? Addicted to cocaine? history of mental problems? we've got waivers for that stuff now! Hey, you want to be a tank gunner??? Or better yet, do you want to drive big unarmoured trucks on IED infested roads and get paid $100 more per month for hazardous duty pay then you would otherwise sitting behind a desk? Just sign the line!
-Advances in military technology will require fewer troops in theater and keep those in theater safer.
-The 1% of America's "Warrior Society" will continue to shrink even more, but the true-blooded warriors will find more hospitable employment with law enforcement, paramilitary organizations and security contractors (Read: Mercenaries) who pay competitive wages and give good benefits. True fighting ability and real results will be found in the elite military units with high standards and civilian paramilitary units composed of the disillusioned & highly paid ex-military warriors.